The spring fishing season has begun on the Arkansas River and many are wondering what the next sixty days have in store for the fishery. If one is sitting in Denver, checking the scattered data points that are available on the internet regarding our flows and snowpack, one might think that we are heading into a situation similar to last spring. At that time, late releases from Twin Lakes kept us at two to three times our normal flow through April and the first half of May, making fishing difficult and the hatches inconsistent. While the pattern looks similar today, it isn’t. We are in for major positive change in about ten days. The following paragraphs contain our predictions for the months ahead – they are not airtight, but they have been formed in consultation with experts on this basin. They represent the most likely scenario based on what we know at this time.
1) Flows in the river are higher now than the historical average. Despite the long spate of beautiful weather we have enjoyed, this higher flow is in no way the beginnings of an early runoff. Rather, 55% of the water in the river today is coming out of Twin Lakes. While the Wellsville gauge reads 638 cfs today, the discharge from Twin Lakes is 348 cfs, with 280 cfs of that being trans-mountain water. The Bureau of Reclamation has been moving a significant quantity of water all winter to make room for native runoff and imports from the Western Slope. They have taken a proactive stance this year so that they will be able to back off the releases from April 1st to May 15th, as suggested in the fishery flow recommendations of the Arkansas River Voluntary Flow Management Program. Based on today’s flows and releases, if the Bureau were to stop their Fry-Ark releases right now, we would be looking at a flow of about 350 cfs at Wellsville. So expect 350-400 cfs starting in early April.
2) The Bureau began moving water early this year because our early to mid-winter snowpack was well-above average. In mid January, the upper basin (above Salida) snowpack was about 140% of normal. As of today, we are down to 107% of normal. The outlook for the Fryingpan drainage, where much of our imported water originates, has declined similarly. The snowpack accumulation season is not over, but the forecast looks dry. We expect the snowpack percentages to continue dropping.
3) The warm weather we have had for the last two months, coupled with a lack of precipitation, has dissipated all of our low elevation snow and has dried out many south-facing slopes. Our snow line is currently at about 9500 feet – all of our “vulnerable” snow is gone. What this means historically is that we can expect a late runoff. Given that most of our snow is high, and on north-facing slopes, we will probably maintain good fishing conditions until May 15-20th, have a mild runoff, and be back in action on the Arkansas around June 20th. The high snow, and especially the north slope snow, does not come off until the angle of the sun is near its peak, during the second and third week of June. Every year run-off plays out a little differently but this high and north slope snow simply does not come off earlier, regardless of temperature.
4) The condition of the river bed, home to our aquatic insects, is excellent. High water last year scoured a lot of the mud and clay out of the substrate. Then an absence of monsoon rains in July and August meant that we experienced no summer flash floods – the muck did not get replenished so our mayfly and stonefly populations have really benefited. Expect great pale morning dun and yellow sally hatches throughout the summer. And a strong blue wing olive hatch this fall.
When the flows drop at the beginning of April, the resulting decrease in current velocity will open up a lot more habitat to our brown trout, give the emerging brown trout fry a better chance at survival, create better wading and fishing conditions, and allow the hatches to come off more consistently and the fish to take best advantage of them. We ought to have six, maybe seven weeks of good conditions on the Arkansas before runoff takes its natural course. If you haven’t scheduled your trip to the Arkansas yet, now is the time. Feel free to call us at 719-539-4223 or email to info@arkanglers.com with questions or to make reservations.
We look forward to some great spring fishing this year!
Greg Felt